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Washington, DC, United States (AHN) – The U.S. economy is “tipping into a new recession,” the esteemed Economic Cycle Research Institute says.

Moreover, there is absolutely nothing that policy makers can do to stop it.

In a statement on its website, ECRI stated that it warned its clients last week about the looming double-dip recession. The only thing ECRI says it is not certain of is whether the recession is just around the corner or if it has already started.

The ECRI also made a case for why people should heed its forecast.

“ECRI’s recession call isn’t based on just one or two leading indexes, but on dozens of specialized leading indexes, including the U.S. Long Leading Index, which was the first to turn down – before the Arab Spring and Japanese earthquake – to be followed by downturns in the Weekly Leading Index and other shorter-leading indexes. In fact, the most reliable forward-looking indicators are now collectively behaving as they did on the cusp of full-blown recessions, not ‘soft landings,’” the organization said.

In addition, the institute said the Economist, a leading financial publication, had noted the ECRI was the only entity that had correctly called three recessions without any false calls in between.

The ECRI explained what a new recession means for the nation.

“It’s important to understand that recession doesn’t mean a bad economy – we’ve had that for years now. It means an economy that keeps worsening, because it’s locked into a vicious cycle,” ECRI said in a statement. “It means that the jobless rate, already above 9 percent, will go much higher, and the federal budget deficit, already above a trillion dollars, will soar.”

“Here’s what ECRI’s recession call really says: if you think this is a bad economy, you haven’t seen anything yet. And that has profound implications for both Main Street and Wall Street,” the institute added.

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Dallas, TX, United States (AHN) – Texas has endured one of its hottest summer this year in its history, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. So when rain began to fall Thursday, it was welcomed like a long lost friend.

In addition, Texas has also experienced one of its driest. Wildfires have been raging though Texas near Austin. Thousands of homes have been destroyed and businesses ruined. Nearly all of the Lone Star State is currently classified as being in an extreme or exceptional drought by the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Farmers and ranchers in the Texas Panhandle have suffered. Fields are burnt and barren and cattle has been sold off as there has been no grass to feed them.

This year’s drought is being called worse than the 1930 Dust Bowl that swept large and widespread walls of dust through the Great Plain. During the Dust Bowl, the annual rainfall ranged between 12 to 20 inches.

This year to date, Amarillo has received a scant 3.89 inches of rain. In 2010, the area got 27 inches.

While the rain is welcome, and does little more than dampen the surface of the amount needed in Texas, the extended outlook is not so bright. NOAA said drought conditions will persist or intensify from now through December.

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Sao Palo, Brazil (AHN) – Brazil’s central bank cited a “substantial deterioration” in its outlook for the economy and unexpectedly announced a cut in its key interest to 12 percent from 12.5 percent.

Rising prices have been a problem in Brazil, and the central bank had raised its key interest rate five times this year in an effort to contain inflation.

However, inflation is still running at a six-year high of 7.1 percent.

The continued high inflation rate couple with the unexpected cut coming a few days after several politicians had called for a rate cut. Observers say it calls into question the central bank’s independence.

Brazil, which is the biggest economy in South America, grew at the rate of 7 percent last year. This year Brazil’s economy is expected to grow at the rate of 5 percent.

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London, United Kingdom (AHN) – Retail sales, excluding gasoline, grew weakly in the United Kingdom during July rising only 0.2 percent compared to the 0.8 percent growth rate in June, according to Office for National Statistics (ONS).

A drop in the sales of clothing and household goods offset the increase in food sales.

Sales of clothing, shoes and household goods dropped by 0.3 percent each, which offsets the 0.7 percent growth in food store sales.

Economists blame the decline in retail sales on inflation in prices coupled with job losses and stagnant wages for those with jobs.

Sales were also down by 0.2 percent in July compared to the same month a year earlier.

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Washington, DC, United States (AHN) – The national unemployment rate for the month of July remained little unchanged at 9.1 while total nonfarm payroll employment rose by a modest 117,000, according to the monthly report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Although the 117,000 jobs created during July was slightly better than anticipated, it was still not enough to keep up with growth in the number of working-age Americans, let alone make a dent in the unemployment figures. Economists say the nation must create from 120,000 to 200,000 jobs monthly to keep up with people entering the labor market for the first time.

In addition, the percentage of working-age Americans who held either a part- or full-time job continued its slide in July, falling to 63.9 percent from 64.2 percent in June. Moreover, about 8.4 million people were involuntarily employed part-time for economic reasons in July, including people whose hours have been cut back or who have been unable to find full-time work, or about the same numbers as in June.

The gain of 117,000 jobs came from openings in health care, retail trade, manufacturing and mining while federal, state and local governments continue to shed jobs.

Unemployment rates among major groups stood at:

• Adult men 9.0 percent
• Adult women 7.9 percent
• Teenagers 25.0 percent
• Whites 8.1 percent
• Blacks 15.9 percent
• Hispanics 11.3 percent

In addition, the number of people who were unemployed for less than 5 weeks dropped by 387,000 in July while the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and longer) remained little changed at 6.2 million. Some 44.4 percent of the unemployed are long-term.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised some figures from earlier months. It revised the total nonfarm payroll employment for May from +25,000 to +53,000 and for June revised employment from +18,000 to +46,000.

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Washington, DC, United States (AHN) – Sales of existing homes decreased by 0.8 percent in June compared to sales a month earlier, falling to a seven-month low.

An increase in contract cancelations fueled part of the drop in sales. Analysts say the increase in cancelations reveals that buyers are changing their minds about buying a home in this time of growing national economic uncertainty.

However, many of the buyers changed their mind after appraisals of the property revealed it was worth less than the contract price they had offered.

In addition, the continued lack of recovery in the jobs sector coupled with the difficulty of obtaining credit make it difficult to find buyers for existing homes, which continues to depress sales.

It was the third consecutive month existing home sales dropped. June’s decreased numbers brought existing home sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.77 million, according to the National Association of Realtors. That puts sale this year behind the 4.91 million homes sold last year, which had set a 13-year record-low sales pace.

Despite the weak sales figures, median sales prices for existing homes rose by 0.8 percent to $184,300 compared to $182,900 a year earlier.

The National Association of Realtors said its members were surprised at the increase in the number of buyers who signed contracts to purchase a house and then backed out of the deal. NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, blamed shaky consumer confidence for the increase. About 16 percent of member realtors reported having a would-be buyer back out of a contract compared to the typical 10 percent rate.

Although sellers and real estate agents are upset by low and falling valuations of houses, a property is only worth what someone is willing and able to pay for it.

Just as easy credit and high employment helped to drive housing prices up to bubble-high levels, the lack of credit, high unemployment and falling or stagnant wages are driving housing prices back down toward their pre-bubble levels.

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Washington, D.C., United States (AHN) – Initial jobless claims remained above the 400,000 mark again for the week ending July 2, although they dropped slightly from the prior week.

Seasonally adjusted first time claims for unemployment compensation insurance benefits were filed by 418,000 people, which was a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 432,000, the United States Department of Labor said.

The less volatile 4-week moving average also remained high at 424,750, but that was a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 427,750.

Largest increases in claims for the week ending June 25, the latest week for which such data is available, were recorded in a mix of large and small states:

• New Jersey (+6,827)
• California (+5,375)
• Massachusetts (+3,816)
• New York (+2,591)
• Connecticut (+2,097)

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Washington, DC, United States (AHN) – Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 25 decreased by 1,000 from the previous rate but still remained above the 400,000 mark for the 12th consecutive week, according to the United States Department of Labor.

Some 428,000 newly jobless workers filed first time claims for unemployment compensation insurance payments during the week ending June 25, down from 429,000.

Economists say that initial jobless claims have to drop below 400,000 weekly and stay there before the economy sees recovery in the jobs sector of the economy from the recession that ended for the financial services sector two years ago.

For the less volatile four-week moving average, there was an increase of 5,000 to 426,750 claims when compared to the previous week’s unrevised average of 426,250.

The largest increases in first-time jobless claims during the week ending June 18, the latest week for such data, were in California (+4,393), New Jersey (+3,274), Florida (+3,146), Michigan (+1,794) and Pennsylvania (+1,653).

For the week ending June 11, the latest week such data is available, the total number of people claiming benefits in all programs was 7,511,613, down by 30,701 from the previous week.

Jobless worker in 33 states and the District of Columbia had access to extended benefits during the week ending June 11. Those states were Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Washington and West Virginia.

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Yonkers, NY, United States (AHN) – The saying “the rich get richer and the poor get poorer,” is seemingly true based on a two-year study of the groups. For American households earning less than $50,000 per year, it has been far more difficult on the economic road to recovery than their more affluent counterparts.

For more affluent households, those earning $100,000 or more, economic recovery began as far back as February 2010—when the Consumer Reports Sentiment Index score for this group moved into positive territory (above 50). In that time, sentiment among this affluent group, which represents 18 percent of Americans, has continued to rise and has reached a two-year high of 54.8.

However in the same period, sentiment levels of households earning less than $50,000 bottomed out in October of 2009. Since then, sentiment has barely risen among this group that represents 50 percent of the U.S. population.

“We are seeing a tale of two very different recoveries,” said Ed Farrell, a director of Survey Research at the Consumer Reports National Research Center. “While things have been improving for the wealthiest Americans for some time, lower-income families still have very little to be positive about.”

Analysts believe the disparity in sentiment levels could be attributed to the fact that lower-income households have suffered more pronounced and frequent financial troubles throughout the last two years.

Estimates place the financial suffering among lower-income Americans as being three to five times the level of those earning $100,000 or more over the course of the recession.

One of the biggest areas of disparity between the two groups is in their ability to afford medical coverage and prescription medication. The percentages of home ownership is a clear predictor of the two groups. Ninety percent of affluent households claim to own a home while only half of the lower income group can say the same.

Even now, missed mortgage payments among households earning less than $50,000 have soared, and are approaching 9 percent in June. Among the more affluent Americans, missed mortgage payment claims are below 2 percent and falling.

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Washington, DC, United States (AHN) – First time claims for jobless benefits remained stubbornly above the key 400,000 mark during the week ending June 11. The tally was 414,000 initial claims, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.

Initial jobless claims have been stuck above 400,000 weekly since April.

Although that was down by 16,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 430,000, it is still too high to signal that a long-awaited jobs recovery is near.

Economists say that it takes the creation of around 200,000 jobs per month to provide jobs for people entering the work force for the first time.

To put that situation into perspective, the economy would need to create about 20 million jobs right now to provide jobs for those who lost their jobs since the recession began, along with the people who tried to enter the workforce during that time and could not find their first job. Analysts say that could take 10 to 15 years to accomplish.

The less volatile four-week moving average was unchanged from the previous week at 424,750 initial jobless claims.

In addition, the percentage of jobless Americans covered by the nation’s unemployment compensation insurance program was unchanged at 2.9 percent for the week ending June 4, the most recent week for which such data is available.

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending June 4 were in:

• Wisconsin (+1,528)
• Tennessee (+1,055)
• Illinois (+755)
• New Mexico (+659) and
• Indiana (+539)

The number of people claiming benefits in all jobless programs for May 28, the latest week for which such data is available, was 7,401,228, which was down by 209,116 from the previous week.

During the week ending May 28, extended jobless benefits were available in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Washington and West Virginia.

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